Predicted scoreLean
Army
18.4
UTSA
25.6
UTSA win probability: 69%
Margin (UTSA − Army): 7.2 (80% range -11 to 25)
Total: 44.1 (80% range 24 to 66)
Actual: Army 37 – UTSA 29 (margin error 15.2, total error 21.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 1.00% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.95% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.93% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.86% |
| 14 | 14 | 0.84% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.