2023 Week 2 · Sep 10, 2023, 12:30 AM · Doak Campbell Stadium

Southern Miss @ Florida State

Predicted scoreConfident

Southern Miss

16.5

Florida State

37.1

Florida State win probability: 90%

Margin (Florida State − Southern Miss): 20.6 (80% range 0 to 42)

Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 78)

Actual: Southern Miss 13 – Florida State 66 (margin error 32.4, total error 25.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.