2023 Week 2 · Sep 10, 2023, 12:00 AM · NRG Stadium (neutral site)

Air Force @ Sam Houston

Predicted scoreLean

Air Force

26.1

Sam Houston

18.2

Sam Houston win probability: 30%

Margin (Sam Houston − Air Force): -7.9 (80% range -28 to 11)

Total: 44.2 (80% range 24 to 66)

Actual: Air Force 13 – Sam Houston 3 (margin error 2.1, total error 28.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.