2023 Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023, 11:00 PM · Albertsons Stadium
UCF @ Boise State
Predicted scoreToss-up
UCF
31.1
Boise State
28.8
Boise State win probability: 45%
Margin (Boise State − UCF): -2.3 (80% range -24 to 19)
Total: 59.9 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: UCF 18 – Boise State 16 (margin error 0.3, total error 25.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.