2023 Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023, 7:30 PM · Alamodome
Texas State @ UTSA
Predicted scoreLean
Texas State
21.9
UTSA
29.7
UTSA win probability: 69%
Margin (UTSA − Texas State): 7.8 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 51.6 (80% range 29 to 76)
Actual: Texas State 13 – UTSA 20 (margin error 0.8, total error 18.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.