Predicted scoreConfident
UNLV
7.1
Michigan
44.7
Michigan win probability: 99%
Margin (Michigan − UNLV): 37.6 (80% range 17 to 59)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 31 to 75)
Actual: UNLV 7 – Michigan 35 (margin error 9.6, total error 9.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38 | 1.54% |
| 0 | 45 | 1.49% |
| 0 | 42 | 1.30% |
| 0 | 35 | 1.26% |
| 0 | 31 | 1.21% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.