Predicted scoreLean
UTSA
25.1
Houston
32.8
Houston win probability: 68%
Margin (Houston − UTSA): 7.7 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 57.9 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: UTSA 14 – Houston 17 (margin error 4.7, total error 26.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 28 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.