2023 Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023, 10:30 PM · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Nevada @ USC

Predicted scoreConfident

Nevada

16.5

USC

39.9

USC win probability: 93%

Margin (USC − Nevada): 23.4 (80% range 3 to 45)

Total: 56.5 (80% range 34 to 81)

Actual: Nevada 14 – USC 66 (margin error 28.6, total error 23.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.