2023 Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023, 4:00 PM · Nissan Stadium (neutral site)

Virginia @ Tennessee

Predicted scoreConfident

Virginia

17.7

Tennessee

38.5

Tennessee win probability: 90%

Margin (Tennessee − Virginia): 20.8 (80% range 0 to 42)

Total: 56.3 (80% range 33 to 80)

Actual: Virginia 13 – Tennessee 49 (margin error 15.2, total error 5.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.