Predicted scoreConfident
Virginia
17.7
Tennessee
38.5
Tennessee win probability: 90%
Margin (Tennessee − Virginia): 20.8 (80% range 0 to 42)
Total: 56.3 (80% range 33 to 80)
Actual: Virginia 13 – Tennessee 49 (margin error 15.2, total error 5.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.70% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 35 | 0.67% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.