2023 Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023, 4:00 PM · Michigan Stadium
East Carolina @ Michigan
Predicted scoreConfident
East Carolina
13.5
Michigan
42.1
Michigan win probability: 96%
Margin (Michigan − East Carolina): 28.7 (80% range 8 to 49)
Total: 55.6 (80% range 33 to 80)
Actual: East Carolina 3 – Michigan 30 (margin error 1.7, total error 22.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 35 | 0.86% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.79% |
| 10 | 45 | 0.76% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.75% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.