Predicted scoreLikely
Nevada
20.5
UNLV
32.9
UNLV win probability: 78%
Margin (UNLV − Nevada): 12.5 (80% range -7 to 33)
Total: 53.4 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Nevada 14 – UNLV 38 (margin error 11.5, total error 1.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.72% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.