2024 Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024, 5:00 PM · Kroger Field
Louisville @ Kentucky
Predicted scoreLean
Louisville
24.1
Kentucky
28.3
Kentucky win probability: 61%
Margin (Kentucky − Louisville): 4.2 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Louisville 41 – Kentucky 14 (margin error 31.2, total error 2.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.