2024 Week 1 · Aug 30, 2024, 11:00 PM · Spartan Stadium

Florida Atlantic @ Michigan State

Predicted scoreLikely

Florida Atlantic

19.6

Michigan State

31.4

Michigan State win probability: 77%

Margin (Michigan State − Florida Atlantic): 11.7 (80% range -8 to 32)

Total: 51.0 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Florida Atlantic 10 – Michigan State 16 (margin error 5.7, total error 25.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.