Predicted scoreToss-up
Air Force
25.4
Nevada
27.0
Nevada win probability: 54%
Margin (Nevada − Air Force): 1.5 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Air Force 22 – Nevada 19 (margin error 4.5, total error 11.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 21 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.