2024 Week 13 · Nov 24, 2024, 12:00 AM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)

Georgia State @ Texas State

Predicted scoreLikely

Georgia State

20.6

Texas State

36.4

Texas State win probability: 84%

Margin (Texas State − Georgia State): 15.8 (80% range -4 to 36)

Total: 56.9 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Georgia State 52 – Texas State 44 (margin error 23.8, total error 39.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.