2024 Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024, 8:00 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
UTSA @ Texas State
Predicted scoreLikely
UTSA
29.4
Texas State
19.9
Texas State win probability: 27%
Margin (Texas State − UTSA): -9.5 (80% range -30 to 10)
Total: 49.3 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: UTSA 10 – Texas State 49 (margin error 48.5, total error 9.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.