Predicted scoreLikely
SMU
31.7
Virginia
22.1
Virginia win probability: 28%
Margin (Virginia − SMU): -9.6 (80% range -31 to 11)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: SMU 33 – Virginia 7 (margin error 16.4, total error 13.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.