2024 Week 12 · Nov 17, 2024, 12:00 AM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)

Southern Miss @ Texas State

Predicted scoreConfident

Southern Miss

17.2

Texas State

37.8

Texas State win probability: 90%

Margin (Texas State − Southern Miss): 20.7 (80% range 0 to 42)

Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Southern Miss 3 – Texas State 58 (margin error 34.3, total error 6.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.