2024 Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024, 7:30 PM · Kinnick Stadium
Iowa State @ Iowa
Predicted scoreToss-up
Iowa State
23.9
Iowa
23.5
Iowa win probability: 48%
Margin (Iowa − Iowa State): -0.4 (80% range -20 to 19)
Total: 47.3 (80% range 26 to 70)
Actual: Iowa State 20 – Iowa 19 (margin error 0.6, total error 8.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.