Predicted scoreLikely
UNLV
34.0
Hawai'i
20.4
Hawai'i win probability: 20%
Margin (Hawai'i − UNLV): -13.6 (80% range -35 to 7)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: UNLV 29 – Hawai'i 27 (margin error 11.6, total error 1.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.70% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.