2024 Week 11 · Nov 10, 2024, 1:00 AM · Albertsons Stadium
Nevada @ Boise State
Predicted scoreConfident
Nevada
21.3
Boise State
39.7
Boise State win probability: 87%
Margin (Boise State − Nevada): 18.3 (80% range -3 to 39)
Total: 61.0 (80% range 37 to 87)
Actual: Nevada 21 – Boise State 28 (margin error 11.3, total error 12.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 35 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.63% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.