Predicted scoreLean
Duke
26.9
NC State
22.6
NC State win probability: 40%
Margin (NC State − Duke): -4.2 (80% range -24 to 16)
Total: 49.5 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Duke 29 – NC State 19 (margin error 5.8, total error 1.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.