2024 Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024, 8:00 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium

Marshall @ Southern Miss

Predicted scoreLikely

Marshall

33.2

Southern Miss

23.2

Southern Miss win probability: 27%

Margin (Southern Miss − Marshall): -9.9 (80% range -31 to 11)

Total: 56.4 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: Marshall 37 – Southern Miss 3 (margin error 24.1, total error 16.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.