2024 Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024, 3:30 AM · Snapdragon Stadium
New Mexico @ San Diego State
Predicted scoreToss-up
New Mexico
28.2
San Diego State
31.8
San Diego State win probability: 59%
Margin (San Diego State − New Mexico): 3.6 (80% range -17 to 25)
Total: 60.0 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: New Mexico 21 – San Diego State 16 (margin error 8.6, total error 23.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 28 | 0.67% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.