Predicted scoreLikely
Kentucky
17.6
Tennessee
29.3
Tennessee win probability: 78%
Margin (Tennessee − Kentucky): 11.7 (80% range -7 to 31)
Total: 46.9 (80% range 26 to 69)
Actual: Kentucky 18 – Tennessee 28 (margin error 1.7, total error 0.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 24 | 0.98% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.87% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.82% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.75% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.