Predicted scoreToss-up
Oregon
26.7
Michigan
24.0
Michigan win probability: 43%
Margin (Michigan − Oregon): -2.7 (80% range -22 to 17)
Total: 50.7 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Oregon 38 – Michigan 17 (margin error 18.3, total error 4.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.