2024 Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024, 7:30 PM · Doak Campbell Stadium

North Carolina @ Florida State

Predicted scoreToss-up

North Carolina

25.5

Florida State

26.9

Florida State win probability: 54%

Margin (Florida State − North Carolina): 1.5 (80% range -18 to 21)

Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: North Carolina 35 – Florida State 11 (margin error 25.5, total error 6.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.