Predicted scoreLean
SMU
28.0
Duke
23.7
Duke win probability: 39%
Margin (Duke − SMU): -4.4 (80% range -25 to 16)
Total: 51.7 (80% range 29 to 76)
Actual: SMU 28 – Duke 27 (margin error 3.4, total error 3.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.