2024 Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024, 11:30 PM · Michigan Stadium
Michigan State @ Michigan
Predicted scoreLikely
Michigan State
17.4
Michigan
28.9
Michigan win probability: 77%
Margin (Michigan − Michigan State): 11.4 (80% range -7 to 31)
Total: 46.3 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: Michigan State 17 – Michigan 24 (margin error 4.4, total error 5.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 10 | 21 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.