2024 Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024, 7:30 PM · Scheumann Stadium

Northern Illinois @ Ball State

Predicted scoreLikely

Northern Illinois

31.8

Ball State

20.2

Ball State win probability: 23%

Margin (Ball State − Northern Illinois): -11.7 (80% range -32 to 8)

Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Northern Illinois 23 – Ball State 25 (margin error 13.7, total error 4.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.