Predicted scoreLikely
UTSA
31.1
Tulsa
19.3
Tulsa win probability: 23%
Margin (Tulsa − UTSA): -11.8 (80% range -32 to 7)
Total: 50.4 (80% range 28 to 74)
Actual: UTSA 45 – Tulsa 46 (margin error 12.8, total error 40.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.