2024 Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024, 4:00 PM · Scott Stadium
North Carolina @ Virginia
Predicted scoreToss-up
North Carolina
28.7
Virginia
28.2
Virginia win probability: 48%
Margin (Virginia − North Carolina): -0.5 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 57.0 (80% range 33 to 83)
Actual: North Carolina 41 – Virginia 14 (margin error 26.5, total error 2.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.