2024 Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024, 11:30 PM · Spartan Stadium
Iowa @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Iowa
22.5
Michigan State
20.0
Michigan State win probability: 43%
Margin (Michigan State − Iowa): -2.5 (80% range -21 to 17)
Total: 42.5 (80% range 22 to 65)
Actual: Iowa 20 – Michigan State 32 (margin error 14.5, total error 9.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.88% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.