2024 Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024, 11:30 PM · Jack Trice Stadium
UCF @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreLikely
UCF
21.4
Iowa State
32.9
Iowa State win probability: 77%
Margin (Iowa State − UCF): 11.4 (80% range -9 to 32)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: UCF 35 – Iowa State 38 (margin error 8.4, total error 18.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.