Predicted scoreToss-up
Alabama
24.9
Tennessee
25.2
Tennessee win probability: 50%
Margin (Tennessee − Alabama): 0.2 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 50.1 (80% range 27 to 74)
Actual: Alabama 17 – Tennessee 24 (margin error 6.8, total error 9.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.