2024 Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024, 7:30 PM · Scott Stadium
Louisville @ Virginia
Predicted scoreLean
Louisville
30.6
Virginia
25.3
Virginia win probability: 38%
Margin (Virginia − Louisville): -5.3 (80% range -26 to 15)
Total: 55.9 (80% range 31 to 81)
Actual: Louisville 24 – Virginia 20 (margin error 1.3, total error 11.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.