Predicted scoreLikely
SMU
33.8
Nevada
20.3
Nevada win probability: 20%
Margin (Nevada − SMU): -13.6 (80% range -34 to 7)
Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: SMU 29 – Nevada 24 (margin error 8.6, total error 1.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.