Predicted scoreToss-up
USC
26.8
Minnesota
23.1
Minnesota win probability: 41%
Margin (Minnesota − USC): -3.6 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 49.9 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: USC 17 – Minnesota 24 (margin error 10.6, total error 8.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.