Predicted scoreLikely
UNLV
23.7
Houston
33.8
Houston win probability: 73%
Margin (Houston − UNLV): 10.1 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 57.5 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: UNLV 27 – Houston 7 (margin error 30.1, total error 23.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.