2024 Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024, 4:00 PM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

SMU @ Louisville

Predicted scoreToss-up

SMU

25.9

Louisville

28.9

Louisville win probability: 58%

Margin (Louisville − SMU): 3.1 (80% range -17 to 24)

Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: SMU 34 – Louisville 27 (margin error 10.1, total error 6.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.