Predicted scoreLikely
Houston
21.6
TCU
32.6
TCU win probability: 75%
Margin (TCU − Houston): 11.0 (80% range -10 to 32)
Total: 54.2 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Houston 30 – TCU 19 (margin error 22.0, total error 5.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.