2024 Week 5 · Sep 29, 2024, 12:00 AM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Florida State @ SMU

Predicted scoreToss-up

Florida State

25.5

SMU

24.6

SMU win probability: 48%

Margin (SMU − Florida State): -0.9 (80% range -21 to 19)

Total: 50.2 (80% range 28 to 74)

Actual: Florida State 16 – SMU 42 (margin error 26.9, total error 7.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.