2024 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024, 8:00 PM · Wallace Wade Stadium

North Carolina @ Duke

Predicted scoreLean

North Carolina

24.7

Duke

28.9

Duke win probability: 61%

Margin (Duke − North Carolina): 4.2 (80% range -17 to 25)

Total: 53.5 (80% range 31 to 78)

Actual: North Carolina 20 – Duke 21 (margin error 3.2, total error 12.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.