2024 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024, 8:00 PM · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
UTSA @ East Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
UTSA
23.6
East Carolina
24.4
East Carolina win probability: 52%
Margin (East Carolina − UTSA): 0.8 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 48.0 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: UTSA 20 – East Carolina 30 (margin error 9.2, total error 2.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.