2024 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024, 7:30 PM · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Wisconsin @ USC

Predicted scoreLikely

Wisconsin

18.0

USC

34.2

USC win probability: 85%

Margin (USC − Wisconsin): 16.2 (80% range -4 to 37)

Total: 52.2 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Wisconsin 21 – USC 38 (margin error 0.8, total error 6.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.