2024 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024, 7:30 PM · Notre Dame Stadium
Louisville @ Notre Dame
Predicted scoreLikely
Louisville
21.4
Notre Dame
33.0
Notre Dame win probability: 77%
Margin (Notre Dame − Louisville): 11.6 (80% range -9 to 32)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Louisville 24 – Notre Dame 31 (margin error 4.6, total error 0.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.