2024 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024, 7:30 PM · Kelly/Shorts Stadium

San Diego State @ Central Michigan

Predicted scoreToss-up

San Diego State

26.7

Central Michigan

25.3

Central Michigan win probability: 47%

Margin (Central Michigan − San Diego State): -1.4 (80% range -21 to 18)

Total: 52.0 (80% range 29 to 76)

Actual: San Diego State 21 – Central Michigan 22 (margin error 2.4, total error 9.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.