2024 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024, 7:00 PM · NRG Stadium (neutral site)

Texas State @ Sam Houston

Predicted scoreLean

Texas State

29.1

Sam Houston

23.3

Sam Houston win probability: 36%

Margin (Sam Houston − Texas State): -5.8 (80% range -26 to 14)

Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Texas State 39 – Sam Houston 40 (margin error 6.8, total error 26.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.