2024 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024, 4:00 PM · Carter-Finley Stadium

Northern Illinois @ NC State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Northern Illinois

28.2

NC State

24.3

NC State win probability: 40%

Margin (NC State − Northern Illinois): -3.8 (80% range -24 to 17)

Total: 52.5 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Northern Illinois 17 – NC State 24 (margin error 10.8, total error 11.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.