2024 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024, 11:30 PM · Huntington Bank Stadium

Iowa @ Minnesota

Predicted scoreToss-up

Iowa

21.3

Minnesota

24.2

Minnesota win probability: 57%

Margin (Minnesota − Iowa): 2.9 (80% range -17 to 21)

Total: 45.5 (80% range 24 to 68)

Actual: Iowa 31 – Minnesota 14 (margin error 19.9, total error 0.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.